Minnesota officially is on the clock.
Well, not that clock – the 2025 NFL Draft is 65 days away – but the clock to decide whether or not quarterback Sam Darnold will be given the franchise tag as the NFL’s two-week window opened Tuesday.
In his seventh NFL season and first in Minnesota, Darnold revitalized his career, passing for 4,319 yards and 35 scores. The 27-year-old set records and effectively set himself up for a lucrative next chapter.
Right on cue, Alec Lewis of The Athletic on Tuesday weighed Darnold’s future with the Vikings.
Lewis debriefed four potential outcomes and put on his general manager hat to rank them in order of least likely to most likely: 1) multi-year extension; 2) franchise tag; 3) transition tag; 4) test free agency.
On the foremost option, Lewis reminded that current Vikings brass has “long been hopeful that it could pair a promising young quarterback on a rookie contract with ample spending on the rest of the roster.”
That plan can essentially be actionized if the team believes J.J. McCarthy is ready for the starting role in 2025. It’s the largest reason why, according to Lewis, a long-term deal for Darnold doesn’t make sense.
Of course, an alternate ending to Darnold’s mostly stellar 2024 season could’ve been convincing enough.
Lewis elaborated: This conversation might have looked different had Darnold led the Vikings to a deep playoff run. He averaged four poor throws a game, according to a Pro Football Reference statistic tracking throws that weren’t catchable with normal effort. He threw 23 poor throws in his final two games, and the Vikings lost both. This contrasts with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, a frequent comparison point for Darnold. Both were highly drafted in 2018, and both floundered early in their careers. Mayfield thrived in 2023 and threw for 337 yards and three touchdown passes in a 2023 playoff game before signing a three-year, $100 million contract worth $50 million guaranteed
In this scenario, Lewis deemed Darnold is more likely to be tagged, but said supplementing the roster at other positions, if Darnold is under the franchise tag, is too costly (the estimate is around $41 million for a QB on the franchise tag in 2025).
The idea of tagging then trading Darnold has a precedent. In 2009, the Patriots franchise-tagged Matt Cassel to retain his performance with Tom Brady sidelined by injury in 2008, but upon learning Brady would return that season, they dealt Cassel to the Chiefs for a second-rounder.
Lewis emphasized a franchise tag and trade is sensible only if McCarthy’s rehab faces a setback – signs say his rehab is going well – or another team is willing to part ways with picks in exchange for Darnold.
As for the wisest approaches, per Lewis, the Vikings could opt to apply the seldom-used transition tag or bank on scoring a future compensatory draft choice by letting Darnold explore and walk in free agency.
Lewis explained the “transition” tag as a way for Minnesota to bide its time, as it would give the club the right of first refusal to any offer Darnold receives. Also, it’s less expensive than the franchise tag (estimated at about $35 million for quarterbacks.). Lewis cited New England’s application of it last year to safety Kyle Dugger.
On the latter, allowing Darnold to leave, Lewis concluded, “With a refreshed salary cap and drafted QB later, it’s time to see if the rebuilding portion of the last few years can maintain the competitiveness.
